PunterScore AI Results — Performance Transparency Report
Every prediction published on PunterScore is tracked from the moment it goes live. This page is our public commitment to transparency — win rates, profit and loss, and performance breakdowns by market, confidence tier, and league. No cherry-picking, no selective reporting. Every tip counts.
How We Track Results
Every tip published on a PunterScore market page is logged at the time of publication with the following data: date, fixture, market, selection, odds, and AI confidence rating. After the match, the result is recorded as Won, Lost, or Void (for Draw No Bet draw outcomes). P&L is calculated on a flat 1-unit stake basis for most markets and 0.5 units for correct score and anytime goalscorer tips. All historical records are maintained in a permanent log and are not altered after the fact. The win rates and P&L figures shown are cumulative since launch in May 2026.
Why Over/Under 2.5 Leads Our Performance Table
Over/Under 2.5 is our best-performing market — 74% win rate across 126 tips and +8.4 units profit — because it is the market most aligned with what our AI model does best: predicting cumulative team xG output rather than individual match events. The underlying xG data for goals markets is more stable, more predictive, and less susceptible to referee decisions, individual errors, and tactical game-state adjustments than match result markets. The Bundesliga leads all leagues at 81% for this market, confirming German football's consistency as a goals prediction environment.
Why Win Rate Alone Doesn't Tell the Full Story
Win Either Half has the highest raw win rate at 86% — but it generates less profit per tip than Draw No Bet or Handicap Betting because the average odds are lower (1.38 vs 1.48 and 1.92 respectively). The correct score market has the lowest win rate at 22% but is still profitable because it generates wins at average odds of 9.2. The metric that matters for long-run profitability is not win rate but return on investment per unit staked — the degree to which the AI's probability estimate exceeds the bookmaker's implied probability. All markets shown are currently generating positive ROI.
Confidence Tier Performance
Across all tracked markets, our AI confidence ratings predict actual win rates with high accuracy. Exceptional-rated tips (88%+ AI confidence) win at 84% in practice. Very High/High-rated tips (76–88%) win at 73%. Good-rated tips (65–75%) win at 61%. This calibration — where Exceptional tips win at the rate the model predicts — is the strongest validation of the AI's probability model. It means the confidence ratings are genuinely informative and should directly influence staking decisions.
Responsible Use of This Data
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Even our best-performing market will go through losing runs — a market with a true 74% win rate will produce runs of 5 consecutive losses with a frequency of approximately 1 in 25 sequences. All results tracked publicly at this page. For support: BeGambleAware.org and GamCare.org.uk. 18+ only.